The construction industry will need an average of 185,000
new workers annually for the next 10 years to meet the nearly equal growth and replacement
needs, according to a labor supply outlook released in January 2007 by the Construction Labor Research
Council (CLRC), a private research group in Washington, DC,
that is underwritten
by contractor associations.
The CLRC found that industry growth will require an
average annual increase in construction employment of about 90,000, or 1.6
percent, over the next 10 years, which is about half the actual employment
growth rate in construction for 1992-2002.
The average annual increase in the overall workforce for the
next 10 years will be 1.1 percent, according to CLRC, the slowest rate of
growth since the 1960s.
An additional 95,000 workers annually will be needed to
replace current industry workers who are expected to retire during the next 10
years.
Factors accelerating this trend in construction are
- the higher average
age of workers in the industry and
- a decline in the portion of the labor force
in their prime working years of age 25 to 44.
“This country is in a period in which the labor markets are most
impacted by the growing number of workers in their final working years, rather
than the stable number of potential new entrants.
The outflow from the age pipeline is the dominant
characteristic, not the inflow. The potential will continue for tight
competition for new labor force entrants, primarily due to demographic
factors,” the research group said. CLRC stressed the importance of “communicating
construction's opportunities to all potential qualified entrants” in the new environment
created by this “societal shift.”
Because the working life of construction field labor is
shorter than most occupations, CLRC said that demographic trends “are impacting
whether this trend of relatively early retirements in construction will
continue is less certain that in the past, the research group found.
Factors
that may reverse it include
- the physical ability to work later in life,
- the
financial need to work longer, and
- the increase in age for the receipt of full
Social Security benefits.
The group also noted a shift in construction from defined
benefit to defined contribution pension plans.
The greatest demand in the next 10 years by craft will be
for
- electricians, with an average of 22,400 annual new entrants needed,
- carpenters (22,000 needed), and
- laborers (20,100 needed).
“An actual shortage of bodies is highly unlikely,” CLRC said
of the future workforce. As has been typical in construction, there often is “a
mismatch between skills available and skills required.”
Large Influx of Hispanic Workers
A key to meeting heavy demands for new workers in
construction during the past 10 years has been a large influx of Hispanic workers,
when employment of Hispanics more than doubled to nearly a quarter of all
industry workers. With Hispanic employment projected to increase relatively
rapidly, their impact in construction is likely to increase.
Immigration is an
unknown that could significantly impact the future supply of labor, according
to CLRC, finding that a relationship between the influx of Hispanics on
construction job sites and immigration is very likely.
Labor demand in construction can be moderated by the use of
more highly skilled workers and by increases in productivity. For the period
1992-2002, CLRC said that construction employment increased at a greater rate
than output.
Forecast Based on Training Data Inconclusive
Training is a significant determining factor in the future
availability of skilled workers in construction, the research group said. An
estimated 225,000 persons are enrolled in federally registered, multi- year,
apprentice programs but the quality of federal data on completions was found to
be “questionable” by CLRC.
This and the lack of reliable national data on the number
of persons in vocational programs makes "the adequacy of industry training
efforts impossible to determine," the research group said.
Relatively good apprentice data from California “provides an
interesting look at the characteristics of today's apprentices,” according to
CLRC.
More than half of apprentices in the state are minorities and whites
slightly outnumber Hispanics. The largest construction apprentice program in the
state is 70 percent minority.
The CLRC based its survey on data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics
and the Census Bureau.
Recent Comments