In the view of Ed Gordon, author of The 2020 Meltdown: Solving the Impending Jobs Crisis, the forthcoming IT workforce shortage is a legitimate worry. Millions of Americans who are unemployed do not have the right talent for the jobs that need to be filled, with many people earning college degrees that are not translating into decent employment.
There now are four million jobs empty, Gordon said, and half of them are highly skilled positions that require specialized technology training and education.
“The issue is that the labor market is out of sync with the realities of the global marketplace with the jobs we are creating and the jobs that are disappearing,” Gordon said. “This is a problem all over the U.S. and most of the developed world.”
Convergence of forces
Gordon said the situation is being exacerbated by specific social and economic forces converging at the same time. The most prominent is that technology is becoming more pervasive in every facet of life, and since technology is complex, people use it in ways that support or create new products and services.
If there is one mitigating circumstance regarding the IT worker shortage, it's that companies are loading up on technology and they want fewer workers to do more. The trend is offset somewhat by the increased efficiency enabled by technology, but that requires talented people. They must be highly literate, and they need specialized technology training.
“Only 25 percent of the workforce comfortably fits into that category, but 75 percent of the jobs we're creating demand it,” Gordon said.
Those other 75 percent, many of whom are high school dropouts, don't have the right talent mix. Some were trained in old technologies that now are obsolete and have gone away. Some have college degrees, but they are degrees in communication, finance, and marketing, where there already are far too many people for the number of available jobs.
At the same time, we have too many “techno peasants,” who Gordon characterized as people with low levels of literacy, plus no specialized career preparation, who are confined to low-wage jobs for the rest of their lives. Until last 20 years, there were fairly good-paying jobs, mostly in industrial settings, that did not require high levels of literacy. Those jobs since have gone by the wayside, and new technology requires higher levels of literacy, specialized skills, and career preparation.
With that in mind, Gordon believes society is divided into three groups.
- Smart people with right talent who keep their skills up to date through networking, seminars, and simply reading books. These workers keep shifting. Most mature workers are not doing the exact same things they did when they were young, and so they had to update their knowledge and apply it in new ways. Given the increasing complexity of technology, this trend will continue to accelerate because people will need more education, not less.
- Younger people who have been steered away from technology fields. In 2010, a tsunami of 79 million Baby Boomers will start to leave the workforce, and about 60 percent of the jobs that must be filled now are occupied by Baby Boomers that will need to be replaced. Many Boomers have the technical skills to keep the economy running, and they represent a larger cadre of people with more technical skills than the generations behind them, who were told that tech jobs weren't cool and don't pay enough. "They love technology - they eat it and breath it,” Gordon said, "but they don't want to design it, make it, repair it, or manage it. The sad part is we need a certain proportionality of these generations to become involved.
- Imported models. American companies used globalization to get rid of low-pay, low-skill jobs that could be done elsewhere, especially India. In addition, U.S. companies have hired high-wage, high skill people they have not found in the United States, and they have imported foreign workers with H-1B visas to fill positions in STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, and Math) careers. The challenge will be that the countries America is importing from are becoming richer as their own economies develop. These imported workers are being called home, especially as wages rise, where they can earn more money and be with their families.
Still more labor competition will come, Gordon said, when Europeans move production facilities to the United States because they can't find enough workers.
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